Monsoon extends its stay, to exit by Nov first week

The southwest monsoon is not done with India yet, overstaying well past its normal withdrawal date of October 15. While it has withdrawn before October 24 since 2007, the exception being October 29 in 2010, this time it is not expected to pull out from the country before the first week of November.

The delay this year is due to the deep depression over the Bay of Bengal that is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm during the next 48 hours, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.

B Mukhopadhyay , IMD’s additional director general of meteorology , told TOI that the southwest monsoon has not withdrawn from the area where the northeast monsoon sets in -southern peninsular India. He said the delay is not very unusual and such a phenomenon can happen once in 10 years. The conditions for withdrawal will become favourable after the dissipation of the cyclonic disturbance over the Bay of Bengal.

Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet Weather Services, said rainfall activity is expected to begin over Gangetic West Bengal and coastal Odisha by Octo ber 26. “Moderate to heavy rains will continue over these areas till October 29. Bihar, Jharkhand and interior Orissa may also experience light rains on October 30 and 31.This means the southwest monsoon may only withdraw from India in the beginning of November,“ said Palawat.

A senior IMD official said the deep depression is providing some rains over Kerala and Tamil Nadu. “This means that south-westerlies still prevail in some parts of the country , which is not a sign of withdrawal of the southwest monsoon,“ the official said. The deep depression over east-central Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours. It is likely to reach northwest Bay of Bengal on October 27.

The system may bring rain in the northeastern parts, Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the next five days. Between October 29 and 31, the IMD has forecast rains at a few places in the northeastern states, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, extreme south peninsular India as well as at isolated places over the coastal areas of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.

Source : TOI25_10_2016_002_019_009